Whoever you’re voting for today, here’s a thought about party support and Scottish independence. The Scottish media are a bit shy about it all.
The SNP has lost folk on the right to the Tories; that’s mainly why its vote share is down from 50% to around 43%. This has moved that party’s centre of gravity more firmly to the centre-left. But of course it has also removed unionists who voted SNP tactically against Labour in 2015. People who vote SNP today are very, very likely to be independence supporters.
Labour has lost people who fancy the Tories more, too, but it’s also lost folk who put the union before everything else. At the last election, it’s estimated by serious people that around a third of Labour’s voters supported independence. And now that Labour’s lost many of its unionists, it’s virtually certain that the proportion of Labour voters who support independence has gone up. So if Labour gets 20% today, close to half of its voters will be supporters of independence. And with the majority of Scottish Greens supporting independence, it’s perfectly reasonable to add another 1% to that total tally of independence supporters.
Of course you can never be precise about these things, but that applies to the unionist side too. There will be a small number of outliers who vote SNP who don’t support independence, but there’ll also be Tories and Lib Dems who do support independence. There’s really no doubt that support for independence is already teetering over the half-way mark.
The best outcome which seems at all realistic tomorrow is that Labour forms a minority administration with a ‘supply and confidence’ agreement with the SNP. If though, as the polls suggest, the Tories win, then expect post-election polls to show majority support for independence. And even if that takes a short while to firm up, what will be beyond doubt right away is majority support for a new and honest independence referendum.
If the Tories are in charge then, let’s get shot of them.