A short note late this Friday evening.
The UK has a prime minister who cannot cope with the job. The terrible truth is that she is running away from Grenfell Tower survivors because her advisers know that if she tries to talk to them in front of the cameras she will freeze up though fear and nervousness.
And who put her there? Scotland and Northern Ireland unionists did.
Yet support for independence in Scotland is unchanged from before the election. There is not a single piece of evidence which suggests otherwise. The Scottish Tory leader, though, now attending cabinet and in charge of reserved policy for Scotland in spite of having never been appointed to any government office, has been unchallenged in her assertion that since the SNP got ‘only’ 37% of the general election vote in Scotland this means Scotland has overwhelmingly rejected another referendum.
The media like the idea, of course. But the rest of us have discounted for that nonsense. So what’s more harmful to independence?
More harmful is independence supporters who are also SNP supporters failing to understand that Scottish Labour leaders’ continuous assertion of the same point as the Tory leader is specifically designed to encourage independence supporters to conflate ‘anti-independence’ and ‘all Labour voters’.
Professor John Curtice estimated in 2015 that around a third of Labour voters supported independence. Because of the move of many from Labour to Tory, that figure has certainly increased. The obvious truth is that support for independence in Scotland includes almost all SNP voters but that’s not enough for independence. Crucially, it also includes over a third of Labour voters (27% at the 2017 election) and folk who didn’t have a vote this year (EU citizens and 16/17 year olds).
When SNP independence supporters attack Labour voters per se, that’s fine for them as long as they’re doing it for party political reasons. But if they’re doing it to help the cause of independence, they’re actually having the opposite effect. Notably, if they think about young folk who moved to Labour because of Corbyn but remain independence supporters, they should realise that if anything is virtually designed to move them into the ‘No’ camp permanently it’s being called bampots by the Yes camp.