31 May 2017
May 31, 2017
Here’s yesterday’s piece about how the media use polls to create uncertainty and pursue their own agendas. It referred specifically to Yougov, and suggested that polls are often constructed to create ‘outlier’ outcomes, before the pollsters use their multitude of polls saying different things to retroactively claim they’d been right all along.
Here’s today’s Independent reporting that Yougov’s latest poll shows a hung parliament. Notably, Yougov claims the poll is a constituency by constituency analysis – this makes it an even stronger statement than simply reporting a swing because most ‘experts’ have been telling us that the Tories are ahead in many more constituencies than their uniform lead suggests. Note, though, the warning of a ‘wide margin of error’. This means that the pollsters have used methodology which enables the papers to report an apparently spectacular story while the pollsters can cover their bollocks later by pointing out that ‘wide margin of error’.
You can take your pick with this one, though. It’s either a cynical publicity stunt by Yougov, or the SNP will hold the balance of power after the election and Jeremy Corbyn’s about to be PM.
One thing you can be sure of – the Daily Record won’t be keen on the report. For the English papers, the report is a wheeze for squeezing an extra story out of the manufactured uncertainty. For the Daily Record, it suggests that people in Scottish SNP/Tory marginals who want a Labour government should vote SNP. That doesn’t serve their unionist agenda at all. Tory papers across the UK, meanwhile, will love the poll because it says: ‘vote Corbyn, get Corbyn’ and this is a killer to Labour campaigns in marginal seats.