Polling this week suggested that ‘No’ has a 6 point lead – 53% to 47% (‘don’t knows’ discounted). This very closely correlates to difference made by the roughly 15% of people with a vote who don’t identify as ‘Scottish’ and who intend to vote ‘No’ by a margin exceeding 2-1. If this is correct, then the Yes campaign has already won over the majority of Scots who have a vote. A narrow win for ‘No’ would become known as the Stymied or Scunnered (or insert your own choice of phrase) Referendum and would be the worst result of all.
The vote has sensibly been based on the local government franchise and; “it’s where we’re headed not where we’re from”, while a ‘Yes’ motif, seems a fair way of expressing the inclusive notion of Scottishness as something people living in Scotland choose for themselves. If independence is prevented only by those, mainly English, folk who actively choose not to be ‘Scottish’, then there will be a very bad public response to such folk.
For my own part, I think No will win by more than 6 points. However, the latest polling out tomorrow (Sunday) will suggest ‘Yes’ may have taken an overall lead, so you might not agree with me. Let’s see. Whatever happens, let’s hope that the democratic will of Scots won’t be stymied. Or, you know, scunnered.